When the Algorithm Rules

Funny runaway book valuation on Amazon demonstrates
when the algorithm rules.

Weird Amazon Pricing Explained

Stop Slipping

The cliche "slippery slope" argument is a slide into never solving sticky issues.

The In Crowd Insists We Like Their Play List

http://www.theguardian.com/music/2010/nov/28/alex-ross-modern-classical-music

Mister Ross is always a thorough and surprising scholar who is also flat out fun to read. Every time I read Ross, I never know how much is his schtick and what is sincere. No one needs to announce listening to Coltrane's Ascension while eating breakfast to have creed (but that happened in an Orange County rag decades ago). They insist we must also like.

I either like it or I don't. And that is a LOT of music in the like column. But I am not paid to "work" for music. Be that as it may, I listen to a lot of Bartok, Miles Davis, Sonny Rollins, Varese ... some modern is fun, much is not.

It's culturally bigoted to insist that we must like 20th century -- or any period of western music. I bet a lot of people digging on Varese and later era composers are haters on the Late Romantic period. "Too thick, too syrupy" they would complain. Then don't listen. My Dad is not insisting, but he loves it to no end.

Interpretations Swing the Unemployment Rates

Inside Washington expert David Stockman sees a crisis of high unemployment mid-2015 while the official line is that we are nearly "full" employment.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-warren-buffett-economy-why-its-days-are-numbered-part-4/

Interesting Times

From Econ. Greece may be first domino in next Global Recession scenario. USA is unable to fix it all, but the Nuclear & Tech Arms Race Redux will keep us in jobs; a three way, no less, with China joining the Eagle and Bear for the Having the Most Big Things Contest (hope never get applied).

To Cold War II. Notably, China has an aggressive manned LEO program, including space station, and a real shot at a lunar play. All that spells not only the rocketry and space travel capabilities, but also advanced knowledge of telecommunications, long range operational coordination, and top leadership support to make it so.

Trap of Super Literacy

Previously, I let music analysis and historical literature somewhat drive my tastes in compositional music. I am re-reading The Rest is Noise by Ross. My new approach is to bifurcate the music and all the analysis. Enjoy both. But analysis will never drive my tastes. The Trap of Super Literacy. Where schooled and high-brow aspirations, awe for academy, and a blind loyalty to print, merge macabrely. Trying to be in -- the in crowd.

Yes, We Have No Bananas

The narrative is that globalization and technologization are increasing productivity. I believe it: still high unemployment, but we have steady (if meager) GDP and productivity growth. Business is making more stuff and serving more needs with less labor expenditures.

This is the wrenching period between not only generations but societal paradigms. Part of the American New Normal seems to be a smaller middle class, a younger and bigger upper class, and a permanent under class for most people born to certain geographical regions or income strata. Good time for studies into upward mobility. Feels at times like that has been lost.

End of LPGA Struggles Awaits in Asia

Other than Whan growing the game by aggregate of events, everything is a struggle. Natalie, Paula, and Michelle are fortunate to have made their bargains when LPGA seemed on an upswing in USA. The only interest and maybe velocity of money is in the Asian markets.

There is no gal / LPGA version of a Tiger Woods. All data is in. No one is huge in broadly measured internationalism -- much less deep in USA. The Asians have plenty of their own to love and that is whom they love: nationals. But no ONE. Missing is anyone remotely Jordan / Woods.

But in many years they will look back at one person that changed the LPGA significantly and permanently. A trail blazer courageously  facing loneliness and alienation, while needing to succeed at great risk. She was and is an exceptional golfing talent. Really effected Our Great Game at all levels, and not just seeming so via a mass of media hype resonated in forum hysteria. Incontrovertible mover of the needle in the perspective of the LPGA. Se Ri Pak.

"I have no nervous."

Soviet Space Program

I have finished my binge of You Tube videos about the Soviet Space Program. They filmed a lot more than was originally assumed.

FWIW, the best single entry is called The Untold Story by National Geographic TV. It is a docudrama of the Von Braun & Korolev parallel stories.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWumRGO1420

But the most interesting to someone familiar with the space race already, and not wanting a rehash, is the story of Russia surpassing the USA in rocket engine technology. Did you know that the Atlas engines are now Russia brand?

The Engines That Came In From The Cold

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLg1QUq5GQM

The UN-Recovery

I've been saying this for months now: not a recovery; much less a boom.

People calling the strong stock market an "economic indicator" are ignorant of Economics. The equity market is not a data point. It is investors. Only reason stocks are booming is because literally everything else pays nothing.

This article looks at three of the four most important general indicators. Two of the three points they examined are down.

The fourth, not mentioned, is employment. Even if the Obama Administration calls the job market "recovered," it is only because people are taking anything W2 for the sake of income. Benefits are reduced, with workers paying more every year. Pensions are all but gone entirely from the private sector. Number of part time or on call or temporary workers is at an all-time high.

So I call it three our of four indicators that this is an UN-recovery as of early Fall 2014.

CNN Examines Three Important Indicators

The Real Unemployment Rate is the U6

The core rate of unemployment, which is always reported, is deceptive. It is a percentage of people earnestly looking but completely unemployed. However, a lot of Americans want to work again, or would prefer working full time, or went back to school due to lack of employment opportunities. The real unemployment rate is the U6.

U-6: total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force, plus all marginally attached workers.

More about unemployment:

Wikipedia On Unemployment

March 2013 Jobs Report Like Using Guillotine For Headache

It's only a single month of stats, but the matter of the unemployment rate dropping due to massive work force reduction points to other systemic issues.

March Jobs Report

We are approaching the long anticipated Boomer retirement "bubble" and almost 500,000 just quit trying to find work in one month.

Boomer Retirement Bubble

Retirees are depending on solvent Social Security and Medicare programs. Those are paid by current workers, just as the retiring boomers paid for their parents' services.

Retiring Boomers Retirement Readiness

There are virtually no defined-benefit plans left in the private sector. We cannot all work for the government.

Disappearing Defined Benefits

So the "drop" in the unemployment rate was just a number placed on top of mounting evidence that the boomer retirement bubble will spur crisis.

Breakdown of Fire's Cost To Make

Amazon is willing to lose a couple of bucks per device to take a leading role in the tablet space.

Kindle Fire Tear Down Analysis

Why Science Majors Change Their Minds

Insights into why merely saying "Sputnik moment" does nothing.

New York Times Article: Why Science Majors Change Their Minds

Free Books Leads Me to An Internet Kerfuffle

Those who know me well know that I like hard cover books (but only in subjects that I fancy). I know that is like admitting to driving a 1995 Buick Regal, but none the less.

Anyway, during one buy at a thrift store, the lady offered me two free hardcover books because “we cannot get rid of those hard cover books fast enough!” Wow. OK, shrill comment aside, I scrounged and picked up a beautiful, fine condition, large ENCARTA DICTIONARY. I love the old GIANT dictionaries like at the school’s library. This was kind of the modern trim version.

Sounded familiar, and had MicroSoft on the cover, so I decided to google “Encarta” and figure out the connection. I barely recalled this recent Internet kerfuffle.

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/30/microsoft-encarta-dies-after-long-battle-with-wikipedia/

Work Style Article We Need to Read

Work Style Article We Need To Read

Entries 1 and 2 describe my career of last 15 years to a tee. Since I made the switch, only two weak-earnings years (2/15), and tons of time off to recharge and refresh.

1. Out: The Traditional Career, In: The Short-term/Multiple Careers/Multiple income stream Model
The career as we know it is dead. Just like you’ve heard many times over the last few years, “this is not your parents’ job search”, it is probably obvious that you shouldn’t expect that 40-year retirement watch either. We no longer live in a world of the “lifetime career” and nor can one job serve as a reliable source of income.

2. Out: Full-time Permanent Jobs, In: Contract/Part-time/Consulting Work
Peter Weddle, an HR executive and self-proclaimed career activist recently wrote that what is on most peoples’ minds is “an honest-to-goodness, full time permanent job,”….. “but what has changed is that the definition of an honest-to-goodness full-time permanent job now looks uncomfortably like an honest-to-goodness full-time here-today-gone-tomorrow job.”

Whole article is a good read. I would add: no pensions. Save-on-your-own is the new mantra. Less than 10% of private employment features pensions for new employees -- and government | quasi-municipal is shrinking (except for utilities), so no hope there.

Work Style Article We Need to Read

Expanding Life Expectancies

Cro-Magnum Era: 18 Years

The Renaissance: 30 Years

1850 America: 43 Years

Modern America: 78 Years

Source: Wall Street Journal

Who Is Acting Like Steve Jobs Now ?

The news of Steve Jobs resigning is so ubiquitous, there is no point in my linking to it here. What is noteworthy is that Mister Jobs mind and drive percolated at a time when America was in a state of severe economic malaise. 

About the USA's 1973 to 1975 Recession

I am looking at the local paper's Business section from yesterday (24 August 2011). The macro indicators are dour: Japan's credit rating cut, California's unemployment rate is 12% (second only to Nevada), and new-home sales are less than half the 700,000 that economists assert represents a healthy market.

This moment, at a low-rent industrial park amidst the whirring and clanking of light machining, another great mind is focused on the same task accomplished by Jobs: invention. She is unaware we are watching, typing behind her back. She senses only the vision materializing and would not read this paper if you handed it to her on a silver plater; too distracting; task at hand; damn it, get out of my shop.

I return to the aforementioned Business section. There are several obvious hints about the new treasure: baby boomers a 70,000,000 member marketing space, another big bank is cutting jobs due to shrinkage in the financial sector, and it is boom times for the data analysis industry. Subtler hints are also begging for attention in the contra treatment of the headlines I mentioned: the home is no longer a sure investment, mass layoffs mean skills and trades in transition, while big governments are weighed down in debt.

Hey lady, what is that thing you're working on?

San Diego County BioTechs Moving to Contracting Business Model

Sourcing and contracting among local biotech companies.


Contract Research Companies

Explora and more than 100 similar businesses, called contract research organizations, have sprung up in San Diego County in recent years to do the heavy lifting of drug development — running labs, formulating and manufacturing experimental treatments, and managing clinical trials for biotechnology companies.

As investment funding has slowed to a trickle in a tough economy, many biotechs slashed their internal research and development operations and became “virtual,” operating with only a handful of their own employees.

Full SignOn San Diego Article


Economics Shifts Industry Business Model

Unable to raise capital, many biotechs and medical instrument makers were forced over the past 16 months to slash their budgets, lay off employees, and look for easier and less expensive ways to carry on the process of bringing drugs and devices to market. In some cases, that has meant outsourcing research, clinical trials, and other work to overseas labs. But many San Diego life sciences companies also are turning to local consulting firms, biomedical research laboratories, and a variety of specialized service providers. Collectively, they are known as CROs, or clinical research organizations—and in San Diego, at least, they are proliferating. (CROs are alternately known as contract research organizations).

Full Xconomy Article

Collectibles Illustrate Supply and Demand

The Great Recession's effect on collectables illustrates Supply and Demand principals. When in demand, values stay higher. When supply is excessive, value declines.

Coins Continue Collecting Value

Jared Fields reports that coin collecting is still strong. “The hobby is not one that loses money.”

More here

Baseball Hits Fewer Home Runs

“High-end baseball memorabilia pieces are maintaining their value, and selling, even in the tough economy,” writes Dieter Kurtenbach, but “sports cards, despite being the simplest and most accessible form of memorabilia, has been the area hardest hit by the economic downturn.” Interestingly, “baseball’s Steroids Era has also affected the baseball memorabilia market.” Likewise, “expensive team jackets often have a hard time getting off the bench,” reports George Castle. Castle concludes: “sales are down overall, but older collectors will still pay around $100 for a 1930s or 1940s scorecard in good condition.”

More here

Not Funny When Comics Don’t Pay

“Few comics from the past two decades have much value. If they do, we're talking a few bucks,” Nancy Crawley learned while trying to sell a small stash. And Jesse Kates tells why: “Today's comics are published in enormous quantities. A typical issue of The Amazing Spider Man will have a print run between 300,000 and 500,000 copies.

More here